To ensure the accuracy of our forecasts, we are constantly researching and improving the developed metamodel for forecasting budget expenditures (2FAIM). Our model forecasts the expenditures of all budget programs, estimates the probability of their implementation, and calculates the optimal values for each indicator. This approach allows us to identify potential shortcomings in public financial management and develop data-driven recommendations to the government to ensure optimal fiscal policy. This facilitates public control over the efficiency of planning and use of taxpayers’ funds.
In the future, the results of the research will be presented publicly with the participation of government officials, representatives of the public sector, academic institutions and the expert community. These events will create a platform for interaction, promote transparency and ensure accountability to citizens. The Budget AI Lab is an innovative project that combines data analysis, artificial intelligence, and expert knowledge in the field of fiscal policy.
The forecasting of expenditures of individual budget programs is carried out taking into account the specifics of the functioning of each budget program, seasonal fluctuations, as well as the impact of possible structural influences on the budget program.
In our work, we evaluate forecast quality, i.e. how accurately our forecasts reflect actual results. We use a variety of indicators to assess forecast accuracy.
In September-October 2023, the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Budget, during the first reading of the draft state budget of Ukraine for 2024, tested the developed model in practice by evaluating all proposals of the MPs of Ukraine.
Підпишіться на нашу розсилку та отримуйте добірку цікавих статей та досліджень щотижня
